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Stocks, Gold, Silver, Oil & Nat Gas ETF Trading

December 13, 2009
The past three weeks have been interesting to watch as the Dow (DIA ETF) has broadened causing traders to be shaken in and out of positions. Commodities have been under pressure as the US dollar has risen. Below are some charts of these investments and what I think could happen in the next couple weeks.

DIA – Exchange Traded Fund
As you can see the broadening formation is bearish as it results in a short term pullback. This type of price action is what frustrates breakout and novice traders. As traders jump into positions once the previous high is broken, they hope for a rally. Instead the market briefly moves higher then reverses and moves down to penetrate the previous pivot low. This is where breakout traders place their stops and as the market knows this, it obliges by moving below this level to shake out these traders before it rallies again.

That being said, it looks like stocks could make a new high this week, just enough to suck in more short term breakout traders before rolling over once again to test a deeper support level. A pullback to the $99-100 level would make for a great buy point.

GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
The strengthening dollar is putting pressure on precious metals with gold testing the first support level. Depending on what the dollar does in the coming days we could see gold test the second support level.

In my opinion gold can test the second support level without triggering any major sell signals for traders and investors. The trend will still be up and it is important to know the horizontal support level is more important than a trend line support level.

SLV – Exchange Traded Fund
Silver is in the same boat at gold. Only time will tell if we get a bounce or a further test lower. Either way, the underlying trend is still up and we will be able trade it.

USO – Oil Exchange Traded Fund
Oil broke down out of its bull flag last week and is currently testing both trend line support and horizontal support levels. We could see a short term bounce here to the $37, 38 or 40 levels. Taking money off the table at each resistance level and raising your stop is an important money management strategy I use for this type of play.

This is a high risk type of play which I am not taking part in. But I do find it fun to track plays like this for educational reasons.

UNG – Natural Gas Exchange Traded Fund
The natural gas fund is a touchy topic with so many traders. I get emails every day asking why I trade UNG because of the contango and the fact that so many people have lost money with it; they don’t want to touch it again. My answer is very simple, it works perfectly fine for short term trading which lasts 1-20 days. “If it works, Don’t Fix Itâ€.
I do agree UNG is tougher than other ETFs to trade, but it still makes money and that is what our goal is.

Anyways natural gas has found some support and is bouncing around. We could see it trend sideways or up until a test of our blue resistance trend line is reached. From there we can asses the situation for a possible trade.

The underlying trend is down on the monthly and weekly charts so do not get too excited about going long anytime soon.

ETF Trading Conclusion:
Overall the market feels a little top heavy and the price action on the charts are saying the same thing. My short term indicators are telling me the Dow (DIA fund) is over bought and ready for a couple days of selling. With any luck we will see a test of support which will flush out most short term traders this week, then a nice low volume rally going into Christmas. On the other hand, the market has been holding up well and prices could continue to drift higher from here. If that is the case we simply continue to hold our current long positions and enjoy the ride.

Silver and gold are testing support levels and if the market continues to rally here, I figure precious metals will follow. But if we see stocks pull back and test support, then we will most likely see the metals pull back further also.

Crude oil has formed a scary looking chart as it flushes out traders on this recent drop. My general rule for spec plays is to buy when the chart looks scary, but is trading at multiple support levels. It is very difficult to buy at these levels but as my good buddy David Banister from ActiveTradingPartners.com always says, “Buy when they Cry, Sell when it’s Loudâ€. Meaning buy when everyone is panicking out of their positions, and sell when everyone is buying into the move usually seen by high volume levels and much higher prices.

Natural Gas is jumping around like crazy. We continue to wait for a tradable price pattern to form in conjunction with a support or resistance level to help put the odds more on our side.

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About the Author

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets. Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

Reach Chris at: Chris[at]theGoildAndOilGuy[dot]com

How do I change gold chloride (gold salts) into Gold metal and is there a test for gold salts?

I'm not certain this will work, never having tried it myself, but I think it's worth a try. I think your best bet to change AuCl into pure gold is to try electrolysis.

First dissolve the AuCl in water. It would work best with distilled water but regular water will work too; the gold just won't be as pure. Cover the solution with plastic wrap or something that you can puncture.

Obtain two nails. These will act as electrodes. Set them up in a way such that the point of each nail is in the solution and the head is sticking out of the solution. That's what the plastic wrap is for. Also, it might be a good idea to saw off the points of the nails because the gold metal will be attatching to one of the nails and it would be difficult to remove if the nail still had a tip. Make sure the two nails aren't touching.

Next, get a battery, 9 volt or better. Attach a wire from the cathode to one of the electrodes and attach another wire from the anode to the other electrode. Let it sit. If everything worked out well, there should be a deposit of solid gold at the end of one of the nails.

I don't know of a test for gold salts, but if the water changes color when you dissolve the AuCl, all gold salts, regardless of the anion will cause the same color change.

Cadan Updates Testing Phase of Its T'Boli Gold Plant
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - March 24, 2010) - CADAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (TSX VENTURE:CXD)(FRANKFURT:A0MZ25) ("Cadan" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that initial test phase of its T'Boli gold silver CIP plant has treated some 1,000 tonnes of tailings, with an assay range from 1 to 3 g/t gold.

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